Statistics Profile

Lachlan Witten

2008

Portland Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1086	619 - 1552	1086	1426
Épée	Direct elimination	892	47 - 1736	892	1046
Foil	Pool	888	695 - 1080	764	1274
Foil	Direct elimination	1298	1019 - 1576	1114	1765

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.