Statistics Profile

Doug Johnson

1987

Lincoln Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1436	919 - 1952	1317	1437
Épée	Direct elimination	1614	725 - 2502	1614	2004
Foil	Pool	785	0 - 1614	785	785
Foil	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.