Statistics Profile

Natalie Rizzolo

2011

Orlando Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1322	1055 - 1588	1322	2943
Épée	Direct elimination	1421	953 - 1888	1421	3074
Foil	Pool	891	601 - 1180	673	927
Foil	Direct elimination	1221	639 - 1802	881	1718

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.