Statistics Profile

Justin Lopez

2008

Orlando Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1498	1162 - 1833	1221	1498
Épée	Direct elimination	1470	939 - 2000	970	1553
Foil	Pool	1756	1138 - 2373	1756	1756
Foil	Direct elimination	1853	883 - 2822	1853	1853

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.