Statistics Profile

Jonathan Ren

2014

AIC Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	588	212 - 963	355	588
Épée	Direct elimination	1377	599 - 2154	1261	1868
Foil	Pool	1032	783 - 1280	814	1295
Foil	Direct elimination	1496	1025 - 1966	1337	1889

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.