Statistics Profile

Derrick Kirk

1971

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	999	133 - 1864	999	999
Foil	Direct elimination	1770	538 - 3001	1770	1770
Saber	Pool	682	79 - 1284	682	796
Saber	Direct elimination	1650	469 - 2830	1650	1650

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.