The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE FOR:
(1) Jason Liu and (2) Abdel Salem on May 13th!

Learn More

Statistics Profile

Lucas Zhang

2016
LA International Fencing Orange County Fencing Center
Is this your profile? Register with your USFA ID to claim it.
Claim profile

Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 507 335 - 678 475 1544
Épée Direct elimination 1034 770 - 1297 1034 1309
Foil Pool 506 274 - 737 422 1507
Foil Direct elimination 1001 493 - 1508 1001 2676

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

Register to view this matchup

Create a free account with your USFA number to unlock projected win chances and strength changes.

Create account Log in

Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.