Statistics Profile

Alexander Li

2011

Rain City Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1301	1045 - 1556	1156	1798
Épée	Direct elimination	1522	1039 - 2004	1148	2097
Foil	Pool	1396	509 - 2282	1396	2557
Foil	Direct elimination	1691	481 - 2900	1691	1691

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.