Statistics Profile

Aaron VanScyoc

1989

Rain City Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1387	1055 - 1718	1328	1571
Épée	Direct elimination	1767	1215 - 2318	1730	2035
Foil	Pool	1052	652 - 1451	880	1052
Foil	Direct elimination	1632	860 - 2403	1462	1802

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.