Statistics Profile

Spencer Marcus

2017

Winter Garden Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	760	116 - 1403	760	760
Épée	Direct elimination	1773	546 - 2999	1773	1773
Foil	Pool	256	0 - 526	231	1832
Foil	Direct elimination	1043	387 - 1698	1043	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.