Statistics Profile

Michelle Wang

2014

East Coast Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	758	522 - 993	547	941
Épée	Direct elimination	1226	768 - 1683	879	1401
Foil	Pool	489	256 - 721	489	1470
Foil	Direct elimination	1304	903 - 1704	1304	1856

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.