Statistics Profile

Matthew Jacobs

1984

Bay Regional Fencing Alliance

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	881	474 - 1287	881	1250
Épée	Direct elimination	1863	1201 - 2524	1863	2155
Foil	Pool	435	0 - 925	318	676
Foil	Direct elimination	992	171 - 1812	992	2079
Saber	Pool	1181	195 - 2166	1181	1181
Saber	Direct elimination	1616	410 - 2821	1616	1616

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.