Statistics Profile

Aaron Krenzer

2015

Nashville Academy of Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	690	166 - 1213	587	690
Épée	Direct elimination	1940	1155 - 2724	1940	2111
Foil	Pool	1303	777 - 1828	1303	3211
Foil	Direct elimination	2067	1316 - 2817	2067	3069

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.