Statistics Profile

Jayden Hwang

2008

Southern California Fencing Academy (SOCALFA)

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1244	991 - 1496	1239	1859
Épée	Direct elimination	1449	878 - 2019	1314	1735
Saber	Pool	1475	1305 - 1644	883	1480
Saber	Direct elimination	1392	1103 - 1680	872	1675

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.