Statistics Profile

Alwyn Chen

2017

Is this your profile? Register with your USFA ID to claim it.

Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	548	83 - 1012	548	1110
Épée	Direct elimination	1063	237 - 1888	1063	1323
Foil	Pool	351	162 - 539	136	437
Foil	Direct elimination	920	528 - 1311	490	1627

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Create a free account with your USFA number to unlock projected win chances and strength changes.

Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.