Statistics Profile

Matthew Larson

2014

Wasatch Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	368	0 - 1254	368	368
Épée	Direct elimination	2331	1066 - 3595	2331	2331
Foil	Pool	744	38 - 1449	744	744
Foil	Direct elimination	1854	839 - 2868	1854	1854
Saber	Pool	-36	0 - 366	-36	215
Saber	Direct elimination	860	54 - 1665	860	1550

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.