Statistics Profile

Peter Crossett

2012

Iowa City Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	987	701 - 1272	987	1344
Épée	Direct elimination	1317	787 - 1846	1317	1469
Foil	Pool	965	722 - 1207	915	3558
Foil	Direct elimination	1353	910 - 1795	1353	3365

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.