Statistics Profile

James Watkins

1996

University of Georgia Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1130	692 - 1567	1130	1478
Épée	Direct elimination	1439	422 - 2455	1439	2079
Saber	Pool	961	675 - 1246	625	1063
Saber	Direct elimination	1297	753 - 1840	1225	1469

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.