Statistics Profile

Nathaniel Hoggard

2005

University Of Colorado Boulder Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2337	1566 - 3107	2337	2337
Épée	Direct elimination	1483	319 - 2646	1483	1483
Foil	Pool	822	474 - 1169	623	953
Foil	Direct elimination	1335	682 - 1987	1234	2105

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.