Statistics Profile

Serena Jin

2013

Olympia Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	863	685 - 1040	515	957
Épée	Direct elimination	1561	1299 - 1822	1452	1776
Foil	Pool	733	248 - 1217	512	733
Foil	Direct elimination	1507	330 - 2683	1507	1507

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.