Statistics Profile

Sophie Calloway

2007

Caddo Magnet Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	871	120 - 1621	871	871
Épée	Direct elimination	1735	535 - 2934	1735	1735
Foil	Pool	1568	583 - 2552	1568	1568
Foil	Direct elimination	1815	482 - 3147	1815	1815

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.