Statistics Profile

James Chen

2009

ArtDu Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1259	689 - 1828	1068	1259
Épée	Direct elimination	2651	1701 - 3600	1954	2651
Foil	Pool	980	123 - 1836	980	980
Foil	Direct elimination	1748	539 - 2956	1748	1748

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.