Statistics Profile

Justin Zhang

2011

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1172	763 - 1580	890	1172
Épée	Direct elimination	1573	854 - 2291	1547	1657
Foil	Pool	1162	839 - 1484	1030	1248
Foil	Direct elimination	1399	803 - 1994	1399	1867
Saber	Pool	1416	840 - 1991	1416	2228
Saber	Direct elimination	1306	446 - 2165	1306	1635

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.