Statistics Profile

Nathan Hillyer

Verified

2004

South Coast Fencing Center

Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1125	734 - 1515	1116	1655
Épée	Direct elimination	1100	232 - 1967	1100	1800
Saber	Pool	800	59 - 1540	800	800
Saber	Direct elimination	1778	561 - 2994	1778	1778

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.