Statistics Profile

Jacob Arnold

1999

Clemson University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	919	602 - 1235	775	963
Foil	Direct elimination	957	208 - 1705	957	1705
Saber	Pool	1041	427 - 1654	1041	1041
Saber	Direct elimination	1764	500 - 3027	1764	1764

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.