Statistics Profile

Cole Shiu

2009

East Bay Fencers Gym

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1346	1122 - 1569	664	1346
Épée	Direct elimination	1670	1253 - 2086	1309	1670
Foil	Pool	418	0 - 859	418	1457
Foil	Direct elimination	1492	834 - 2149	1492	1934

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.