Statistics Profile

John Kinsella (Jack)

2004

Clemson University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1480	1287 - 1672	904	1721
Épée	Direct elimination	1632	1311 - 1952	1231	1809
Foil	Pool	1217	507 - 1926	1217	1217
Saber	Pool	1652	1266 - 2037	1652	1853
Saber	Direct elimination	1945	1269 - 2620	1927	2496

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.