Statistics Profile

Andrew Nelson (Jake)

2005

University Of North Texas Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	529	0 - 1191	529	728
Foil	Direct elimination	1563	499 - 2626	1563	1734
Saber	Pool	1104	832 - 1375	998	1172
Saber	Direct elimination	1321	717 - 1924	958	1481

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.