Statistics Profile

Isaac Chang

2017

Capital Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1105	307 - 1902	1105	1105
Foil	Direct elimination	1319	187 - 2450	1319	1319
Saber	Pool	608	433 - 782	488	2586
Saber	Direct elimination	1286	1012 - 1559	663	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.