Statistics Profile

Michelle Morris

2004

James Madison University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	987	294 - 1679	987	987
Épée	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079
Foil	Pool	886	252 - 1519	769	1114
Foil	Direct elimination	1758	522 - 2993	1758	1758

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.