Statistics Profile

Miles McCormack

2012

Rogue Fencers Guild

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1970	1097 - 2842	1970	1970
Épée	Direct elimination	2058	706 - 3409	2058	2058
Foil	Pool	2949	1556 - 4341	2949	2949
Foil	Direct elimination	2787	1378 - 4195	2787	2787

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.