Statistics Profile

JASON AARONSON

2011

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	967	496 - 1437	967	1187
Épée	Direct elimination	1493	595 - 2390	1493	1829
Foil	Pool	1812	1092 - 2531	1812	1812
Foil	Direct elimination	2134	1000 - 3267	2134	2134

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.