Statistics Profile

Alexander Chen

2008

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	793	493 - 1092	793	1431
Épée	Direct elimination	1028	384 - 1671	887	1938
Foil	Pool	349	0 - 860	304	423
Foil	Direct elimination	850	0 - 1702	850	1552

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.