Statistics Profile

Serena Varela

2009

Northwest Indiana Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	3146	2239 - 4052	3146	3146
Épée	Direct elimination	2664	1467 - 3860	2664	2664
Saber	Pool	1093	846 - 1339	828	1972
Saber	Direct elimination	1622	1232 - 2011	1339	1750

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.