Statistics Profile

Lara Varela

2010

Northwest Indiana Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	3651	2735 - 4566	3399	3651
Épée	Direct elimination	3182	1967 - 4396	3182	3182
Saber	Pool	1465	1235 - 1694	1001	1465
Saber	Direct elimination	1683	1291 - 2074	1398	1864

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.