Statistics Profile

Omar Elsayed

2014

The Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	664	395 - 932	661	1369
Foil	Direct elimination	1250	783 - 1716	1154	1828
Saber	Pool	955	773 - 1136	925	1254
Saber	Direct elimination	1505	1241 - 1768	1440	1603

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.