Statistics Profile

William Need

2005

Purdue Fencing Club-Purdue Univ.

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1879	1261 - 2496	1701	1879
Épée	Direct elimination	3014	2300 - 3727	2567	3014
Foil	Pool	1613	1303 - 1922	1205	1613
Foil	Direct elimination	1991	1473 - 2508	1489	1991

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.