Statistics Profile

Jefferson Hao

2016

Southern California Fencing Academy (SOCALFA)

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	256	0 - 1016	256	256
Foil	Direct elimination	1369	187 - 2550	1369	1369
Saber	Pool	415	203 - 626	-12	539
Saber	Direct elimination	1176	795 - 1556	1069	2832

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.