Statistics Profile

Jason Schiflett

1963

Rogue Fencers Guild

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2082	1781 - 2382	1811	2307
Épée	Direct elimination	1925	1515 - 2334	1458	2025
Foil	Pool	1190	441 - 1938	1190	1190
Saber	Pool	1063	148 - 1977	1063	1063
Saber	Direct elimination	1782	530 - 3033	1782	1782

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.