Statistics Profile

Ian Moore

2008

Forge Fencing Teams DUR

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	799	0 - 1606	799	799
Épée	Direct elimination	1961	579 - 3342	1961	1961
Foil	Pool	841	70 - 1611	841	841
Foil	Direct elimination	1626	449 - 2802	1626	1626

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.