Statistics Profile

Matthew Lehman

2005

Scarsdale Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1668	1153 - 2182	1464	1669
Épée	Direct elimination	2075	1130 - 3019	1972	2115
Saber	Pool	1669	1482 - 1855	1384	1710
Saber	Direct elimination	2038	1721 - 2354	1551	2038

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.