Statistics Profile

Alan Zheng

2004

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2273	1915 - 2630	2014	2273
Épée	Direct elimination	1521	768 - 2273	1521	1952
Foil	Pool	843	250 - 1435	843	1127
Foil	Direct elimination	1491	478 - 2503	1491	1835

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.