Statistics Profile

Jason Kao

2015

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	484	84 - 883	469	1142
Épée	Direct elimination	1606	856 - 2355	1606	1998
Foil	Pool	286	0 - 632	286	766
Foil	Direct elimination	1185	573 - 1796	1185	1474

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.