Statistics Profile

Ryan Kao

2016

Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 1010 164 - 1855 619 1010
Épée Direct elimination 1931 549 - 3312 1931 1931
Foil Pool 1586 1022 - 2149 1582 1726
Foil Direct elimination 1676 749 - 2602 1676 1878

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.