Statistics Profile

Matthew Upbin

2013

Tim Morehouse Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	311	0 - 665	311	1067
Foil	Direct elimination	716	0 - 1457	716	1464
Saber	Pool	379	34 - 723	337	481
Saber	Direct elimination	1253	616 - 1889	1253	1775

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.