Statistics Profile

William Pan

2015

Rochester Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	-214	0 - 220	-214	269
Foil	Direct elimination	881	122 - 1639	881	1636
Saber	Pool	339	4 - 673	153	517
Saber	Direct elimination	1053	403 - 1702	1053	1506

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.