Statistics Profile

Julien Harris

2009

Rain City Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1937	1223 - 2650	1937	1937
Épée	Direct elimination	3309	2320 - 4297	3309	3309
Foil	Pool	2041	1868 - 2213	977	2041
Foil	Direct elimination	2141	1963 - 2318	1258	2147

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.