Statistics Profile

Avery McGahan

2015

Precision Swordcraft Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	210	0 - 592	-6	331
Épée	Direct elimination	1334	607 - 2060	1322	1736
Foil	Pool	410	76 - 743	112	563
Foil	Direct elimination	1208	499 - 1916	1049	1593
Saber	Pool	422	154 - 689	142	835
Saber	Direct elimination	1002	517 - 1486	1002	1492

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.