Statistics Profile

Adley McGahan

2015

Precision Swordcraft Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	362	0 - 831	362	833
Épée	Direct elimination	1219	255 - 2182	1219	1618
Foil	Pool	316	96 - 535	-184	321
Foil	Direct elimination	821	434 - 1207	736	1117

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.