Statistics Profile

Ethan Welch

2004

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1870	1063 - 2676	1870	2652
Épée	Direct elimination	2172	1511 - 2832	2042	2209
Foil	Pool	794	84 - 1503	794	1571
Foil	Direct elimination	1855	599 - 3110	1855	1855

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.